HSP compiled the following COVID-19 Statistics for U.S. States and Territories (sorted by cases per million people). This data stands as of Sunday, March 29, 2020.
Scroll down to download this excerpt from HSP’s database.
As expected, the numbers are blowing up, but mostly where test results are finally in. Many states increased testing results by 40-66%, including AZ, HI, VT, CT and Michigan (where I am). As Michigan is a hot spot, esp by Detroit, their increased testing led to a 50+% spike in cases. Other 40-50+% spikes in cases came in CT, RI and SC.
Delaware stands out b/c it’s barely tested anyone, but 86+% of those tested are positive compared with the national average of 17.6%.
Infection rates per capita are highest in NY, NJ, LA (Louisiana, not Los Angeles people!), WA and MA.
About 1 in 6 people infected are hospitalized. Fatality rate of those infected stands at 1.75%; about 3x better than the worldwide average of 4.78%. However, some US states have high fatality rates either due to age or general level of health: VT, WA, Louisiana, Puerto Rico, and OK. We are not getting too excited about low rates yet, as some states have not had any fatalities.
New York has the highest number of cases and fatalities, as well as the higher per capita fatality rate (about 50 per million). This is approximately the same fatality rate per as the Netherlands (#3 highest in the world after Italy and Spain).
If the US hits NY’s level of infection, we will be at 1 million. With fatalities, that would equal about 16,000 in the U.S. Based on our country to country data, there is some hope that the U.S. will fare better than others, due to lower average age than Europe. However, we have higher rates of many health conditions, but a lower rate of smoking than Italy and Spain. New York’s fatality rate/infection is just 1.62%. if New York had the age/health/fatality rate of Italy, instead of 1,000 deaths, they would be currently at about 6,000. (If you are still smoking or vaping anywhere in the world, it’s a good time to stop.)
Expect massive jumps in all states each day this week. My estimate is worldwide infections hit 1 million by Tuesday/Wednesday and US infections will hit 500,000 by this time next weekend (based on a compound infection growth rate of 20%/day). I believe our fatality rate will come down closer to 1.5% or lower, however, leading to 7,500 deaths by this time next week. After this time next week, I expect growth in numbers to be higher, but rates of growth to be lower continually. At a 10% daily compound growth rate the week after this one, we will be at 1 million infections by Easter in the US. Again, a declining fatality rate (hopefully) will mean perhaps 12,500 deaths by Easter. Again, had we had Italy’s fatality rate, we would be looking at 110,000 deaths by Easter. Praying our trends of low rates continue to decrease.
