HSP compiled the following COVID-19 Statistics for Countries over 30 million Population or 500+ Cases. This data stands as of Wednesday, April 1, 2020.
Scroll down to download this excerpt from HSP’s database.
I’m trying to be more efficient with my time and provide easier to digest stats. So far so good. Tonight I’m providing the same list, sorted two different ways. Of course, with so many columns, we could sort about 8 ways. And these are just CASES, not fatalities. That’ll be the next post.
So first we have the countries sorted by change from Monday (2-day change is often more meaningful than 1-day change…plus I’m setting up to do these country updates every other day so I can start getting more sleep).
What we see is that the U.S. added about the same number of cases each of the past two days and by far the most of any country. We also see that Italy is finally decreasing in its ranking of new cases. Now, there are some reliable reports showing that Italy’s fatality and infection rate is likely double than what they have reported. This is not good, as it would imply much higher infection and fatality rates around the world (since we cannot necessarily believe the Chinese figures).
The UK is really jumping up the list, which is not surprising given their late move to safety measures. I am expecting some pretty bad realities for them in the next month. Other countries are really starting to accelerate their growth: Brazil, Turkey, Georgia, Russia, Ecuador and India. Small numbers now, but they are starting their ascent and as these are generally less stable countries, we could see some real social unrest in all of these places as infections and hospitalizations surge. The U.S. is experiencing some interesting/nerve-inducing juxtapositions of governors and mayor opening up the jails and prisons, yet jailing shop owners and others who are either open in violation or protecting their shops from looters. A breakdown in the social fabric and rule of law could be a real disaster anywhere it occurs. Each country/state will be its own experiment.
Infections per million is the sorting of the second table. If we are to believe the new reports/estimates that Italy’s true rates are double its actual reporting (Wall Street Journal), then we would see that about 3,700 per million is the same as Luxembourg and Iceland (luckily, Iceland is still only reporting 2 fatalities despite a high infection rate). The U.S. is at a current infection rate of 1/6th of these top countries, suggesting a long slog ahead before we start stabilizing. Our testing rates are catching up, but still way behind the reality. So multiply our current numbers by 6 and that’s where we may be in 3+/- weeks, so 1.2 million U.S. cases and 30,000 fatalities in a pretty short period of time.
