HSP compiled the following COVID-19 Statistics for Countries over 30 million Population or 500+ Cases. This data stands as of Wednesday, April 1, 2020.
Scroll down to download this excerpt from HSP’s database.
The U.S. has solidified its position for the foreseeable future as the grim leader of this category. Spain is now second, while Italy is slowly starting to reduce is daily increase (reportedly), as is France. The UK is increasing its fatality growth rate. 40,000 of the 47,000 deaths are from the top ten countries. As an omen, these countries, including the U.S., make up only 1/8th of the world’s population. China is its own opaque story that likely has more cases and deaths than reported by a factor of 10x or 20x…who knows.
Fatalities per million are about 200 in Spain and Italy. Again, Italy’s figure is esteemed to be 2x the reported rates, which would be 434 per million. The U.S. is at 15.5 per million, which is about 1/30th of the “high” Italy estimate. If we hit that level, that would be 150,000 U.S. fatalities. For the reasons stated last night, including our lower age, lower smoking rate and overall lower fatality rate per case 2.37% vs. 11.9%, the U.S fatality total could be closer to 40-70k in the next month. We will see. The U.S. didn’t go on lockdown in many areas, so our desire for freedom may mitigate the “savings” we got in age/smoking rates.
BTW, Germany’s fatality rate per infection is now nearly 1.2%, so they are creeping up daily, as we have been. Canada is also moving up. Haven’t talked about them much, but I’m quite interested in their situation. I believe time will tell us much more about the northern strategy than is evident now.
I will be starting to post country stats every other night. On alternate nights, I will post state results, so tonight I’m getting some sleep and will post US State stats tomorrow night. I can report a few items:
We have 1.17 million test results, an increase of 111,000 today, versus an increase of 114,000 yesterday, so our rate of growth in test results is a bit static. Hoping for a big increase soon. Rate of infection per test is about the same (25k new cases, about the same increase as yesterday).
The fatalities continue to increase at a somewhat faster rate (912 new today vs. 866 yesterday). We sit at 5,110 deaths, with 43% in NY.
California’s testing is still a national disgrace. They are the most populous state and had some of the very first cases and yet they have results from about 0.08% of their population vs. 4x that in Florida (half as populous). New York has test results from 1.13% of its population, a testing result rate 14x higher than California! I have no idea what is up, but it’s not good.
Top states for reported cases:
NY- 84k
NJ – 22k
CA – 9.9k
MI – 9.3k
FL – 7.8k
MA – 7.7k
IL – 7.0k
LA – 6.4k
PA – 6.0k
WA – 6.0k
There are 10 states with more than 100 fatalities, including all of the above except PA. Georgia is the state leaping up the fatality rankings. More state stats to come in a separate post.
