HSP compiled the following COVID-19 Statistics for U.S. States and Territories (sorted by cases per million people). This data stands as of Monday, April 6, 2020.
Scroll down to download this excerpt from HSP’s database.
Final stats and tables of the night. Good news here again! Fatality growth is decreasing! From a 2-day growth of 44% (Thurs-Sat) down to a 2-day increase of 29% (Saturday to Monday). Also, here is the big number I’ve been tracking: even if the entire U.S. had the fatality rate per million of New York (the highest of any state), the total deaths from COVID-19 in the U.S. would be 80,000. While this is a big number, it is only about 1/3 higher than the annual flu. It is also unlikely that the entire country will suffer like NY, mostly due to social distancing and other tactics put into place. Also, new treatments are being used, which are helping to lower the fatality rate as time goes on.
So even though the fatality rate per infection is about 3%, the overall fatality rate per test is only 0.5% and we know we probably haven’t tested 10-20x those actually infected but with minor or no symptoms.
So I won’t make any predictions yet, but I am fairly confident that in the near future, the U.S. will not get even close to 80,000 cases, so long as we stay smart about masks, hygiene, social distancing, etc.
So first table is total fatalities. NY/NJ still account for more than 50% of deaths. Next are Michigan, Louisiana and California. The news keeps hyping the hotspot of Chicago, but I am not seeing it, at least relative to Detroit, NY, and New Orleans. Perhaps they are stoking our gov’s feud with the prez. IDK. Not that Illinois is doing well, but their overall rates of death are pretty low. In fact, NY’s fatality rate per million people is 10x Illinois’ rate. We have many states with few deaths. 20 states have 30 or fewer fatalities so far.
Fatality rates per case are highest in Kentucky, Vermont, Washington, Michigan and Oklahoma, ranging from 3.84% to 4.81%. Remember, the highest rates in Europe’s epicenters are 10-12% of those that tested positive. The total/average for the U.S is nearly 3.0% now, which has increased. I believe that once we past the apex in Michigan and further beyond the apex in NY/NJ, that figure will decrease. Also, as more tests are completed, the figure will decrease. My prediction is we will end up worse than Iceland due to our less healthy population, but better than most. Probably somewhere about 0.8%-1.0%. Bad, but not what we are seeing now.
Fatality rate per test increased slightly to 0.56% from 0.51%. There are four states with rates over 1%: Oklahoma, Michigan, New York and New Jersey. Again, once more tests come in, this figure should decline markedly.
So finally, total deaths and fatality rate per million. In my mind, it’s always been the most important figure, so that we can put this in perspective with every other cause of death and react accordingly. Remember, car accidents are about 40k per year, as one example.
At this point, NY is approaching 250 per million, which is nearly 10x the national rate of 32.5. NY’s rate is increasing at a slowing rate. There are no other states approaching anywhere near this rate. New Jersey and Louisiana are less than HALF of NY’s rate. Then you drop down to Michigan at 1/3 less than NJ/LA. Then the numbers drop from there. So we haven’t reach the apex anywhere yet, so there is much suffering to come. However, even now NY/NJ have extra beds, ventilators compared to the number they feared they would need. They are starting to offer them to other states/cities.
So, if we double the national per capita fatality rate compared to today’s 32.5 per million (to 65 per million), we get to about 20,000 deaths nationally. Hard to believe that is possible, but if you look at the states outside of the top 2, none have reached 1,000 deaths and again, 20 of them have fewer than 30. That would be considered a big win (and only about 40% of the annual fatalities from the flu). No death is a victory, but saving any death is. I cannot imagine we will get to NY’s rate and lose 80k people, unless we re-trigger this before getting treatments in place.
I’m more optimistic today than I have been in a long time. 
