HSP compiled the following COVID-19 Statistics for fatalities per million for the most impacted countries. This data stands as of Tuesday, May 5, 2020.
Scroll down to download this excerpt from HSP’s database.
U.S. is still at half the level of several European countries and only a third the impact of Belgium (wow Belgium, sorry). No deaths are good, of course, and we are already at the level that the IHME just a few weeks ago projected would be our total through August 4th….so they’ve been way wrong in their models (as have we all…). In other news, the UK’s total deaths are now the highest in Europe. Sweden’s deaths per million are higher than the U.S.
If we reduce the number of deaths per week in the U.S. by 30% of the prior week, then this will get us to 104,000 deaths by 4th of July and then be mostly burned out. That is NOT a prediction, just a scenario. It appears that we will not be able to do that well at the rate things are going now. But with the opening of the country, we are about to find out how the spread/impact will occur in Phase 2. Buckle up and stay safe!
A note that can put some of this into perspective. Estimates of up to 50% of European deaths and 25-38% of U.S. deaths in nursing homes or similar, suggesting impact to non-nursing home population is lower than just spreading the numbers over everyone. Certainly we don’t want any untimely deaths, but some context can help.
Another important metric. The state of New York’s antibody tests showed about 12%+ of people have been exposed, which is about 2.4 million people. 25,000 have died, which is a fatality rate per exposure/infection of 1.1%. I really hope that metric goes down. Many expect it to. Most reliable studies I’ve read suggest the fatality rate is about half that. Let’s hope.
